Stocks shrugged off an afternoon slump and ended higher on Wall Street on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate hike since 2018.

Bond yields also rose as the Fed began to shift its policy focus to fighting inflation. As markets had expected, the Fed raised its short-term rate by 0.25 percentage points. The move marks a move away from keeping the ultra-low interest rates it had in place during the worst part of the pandemic, which were meant to stimulate the economy, by the Fed. Now that prices are rising, that is changing course.

Wednesday:

The S&P 500 rose 95.41 points, or 2.2%, to 4,357.86.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 518.76 points, 1.5%, to 34,063.10.

The Nasdaq gained 487.93 points, or 3.8%, to 13,436.55.

The Russell 2000 Small Business Index rose 61.75 points, or 3.1%, to 2,030.72.

For the week:

The S&P 500 is up 153.55 points, or 3.7%.

The Dow is up 1,118.91 points, or 3.4%.

The Nasdaq is up 592.75 points, or 4.6%.

The Russell 2000 is up 51.05 points, or 2.6%.

For the year:

The S&P 500 is down 408.32 points, or 8.6%.

The Dow is down 2,275.20 points, or 6.3%.

The Nasdaq is down 2,208.42 points, or 14.1%.

The Russell 2000 is down 214.59 points, or 9.6%.

Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

stock index in Hong Kong, Monday, March 14, 2022. Stocks were mixed in Asia and oil prices were flat on Monday as Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine and persistently high inflation left investors guessing what to expect. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)” title=”A woman wearing a face mask walks past a bank’s electronic board showing the Hong Kong stock index in Hong Kong, Monday, March 14, 2022. Stocks were mixed in Asia and oil prices were flat on Monday as Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine and persistently high inflation left investors guessing what to expect. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)” loading=”lazy”/>

BANGKOK

Asian stocks were mostly down and oil prices fell on Tuesday after another day of losses on Wall Street, anxiety over the war in Ukraine and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates. keeping global financial markets on edge.

Markets remain confused as investors try to assess the various economic impacts of the war in Ukraine, upcoming rate hikes by central banks and new virus lockdowns in China. Tokyo rose while markets in China, Australia and South Korea fell.

Shares have fallen sharply in Hong Kong recently, falling to nearly six-year lows after neighboring Shenzhen was ordered to shut down to battle China’s worst COVID-19 outbreak in two years.

The Hang Seng index lost 2.4% on Tuesday morning to 19,068.49, while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.1% to 3,157.14.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.3% to 25,385.11, while Seoul’s Kospi fell 0.6% to 2,630.34. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.6% to 7,108.80 and shares also fell in Taiwan and Bangkok.

Oil prices fell, easing some inflationary pressure sweeping the world, with U.S. crude falling below $100 a barrel after hitting $130 last week.

U.S. crude fell $4.14 to $98.87 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell from $6.32 to $103.01 on Monday.

Brent crude, the standard for international oil pricing, fell $3.90 to $103.00 a barrel.

Uncertainty over whether the global economy could be headed for a toxic combination of stagnant growth and persistently high inflation has led to a resumption of the pandemic in question, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine causing the prices of oil, wheat and other commodities produced in the region to skyrocket.

This has led to sharp day-to-day and hour-to-hour reversals in the markets as expectations of worsening inflation rise and fall.

“Markets seem to have tampered with a strange mix of hope, fear and uncertainty,” Mizuho Bank said in a comment.

On Monday, negotiators from Russia and Ukraine met via video conference for a new round of talks, after both sides expressed some optimism in recent days. The talks ended without a breakthrough after several hours. The negotiators took “a technical break”, said Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak, and planned to meet again on Tuesday.

Investors were already worried before the start of the war because central banks around the world are preparing to end the stimulus measures they injected into the global economy after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Most people expect the Federal Reserve to raise its main short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday. It would be the first increase since 2018, and it would take the federal funds rate down from its all-time high of near zero.

On Monday, the S&P 500 gave up an early gain and closed 0.7% lower at 4,173.11, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually unchanged at 32,945.24. The Nasdaq fell 2% to 12,581.22.

Shares of smaller companies also fell. The Russell 2000 Index slid 1.9% to 1,941.72.

The pullback came as the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since the summer of 2019.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 2.16% from 2.00% on Friday evening after hitting its highest level since July 2019. The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations of policy changes of the Fed, went from 1.75% to 1.86%. .

The Fed faces the challenge of raising rates just fast enough and high enough to fight inflation without overdoing it and causing a recession.

The war in Ukraine makes the balancing act even more difficult. He’s pushing inflation higher by raising the prices of everything from nickel to natural gas. And it threatens to stunt economic growth.

In currency trading, the dollar rose to 118.34 Japanese yen, its highest level in about six years, from 118.18 yen on Monday night. The dollar tends to serve as a safe haven in times of crisis, and the prospect of higher interest rates enhances its appeal to investors.

The weak yen is a boon for Japanese exporting manufacturers as it makes their products relatively cheaper and more competitive in overseas markets. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. gained 2.5% early Tuesday,

The euro fell from $1.0941 to $1.0979.

____

AP Business Writers Stan Choe, Alex Veiga, and Damian J. Troise contributed.

• AMC stock rose slightly on Tuesday amid renewed optimism on the Russian-Ukrainian front.
• AMC Entertainment had hoped for a rebound on the back of a strong Batman box office.
• Shares of the movie giant are expected to rebound on Tuesday as yields at risk.

Update: AMC Holdings is trading at $15.66, up 2.96% in the last hour of trading, as Wall Street managed to turn green following some bullish headlines from the Russian-Ukrainian front . Humanitarian corridors were opened on Tuesday for cities such as Sumy and Mariupol. Also, Russia announced another corridor for Wednesday, which will allow the evacuation of Kiev, Kharkiv and other cities. But the headline that spurred the latest surge in risk appetite came from Ukraine, as the country declared it would no longer seek NATO membership.

It’s hard to predict how things will continue from now on, because if war-related worries eased further, attention would shift back to rising inflationary pressures and central bank responses to them. The United States will release February inflation figures next Thursday, and the annual figure is expected to have hit 7.8%, a multi-decade high. Meanwhile, falling demand for security has pushed government bond yields higher, with that of the 10-year US Treasury note currently at 1.87%, up twelve basis points in the daytime.

Previous Update: Holy Purse, Batman! AMC Holdings stock fell short of its third-best opening weekend since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shares of the popular cinema chain fell 5.5% in the first half hour of trading on Tuesday, but recovered to -0.5% after an hour of trading. AMC stock is trading at nearly $15 per share. Again, the Nasdaq is having another bad session and is down 0.8% right now after Monday’s 3% drop. Over four million tickets were sold last weekend for AMC’s latest hit The Batman. The Caped Crusader movie grossed some $258 million from Thursday to Sunday. In the United States, AMC said it achieved an above-normal market share of 29% over the weekend.

AMC stock gave up some premarket gains as the market declines. Previously, European markets had been strong thanks to a joint debt issuance proposal, but now things are turning bearish again. AMC CEO Adam Aron said Monday night that using cryptocurrency is good for AMC Entertainment and that the company may consider launching its own crypto in the future if things go well. . He also said that they would stay very far on the right side of the law when it comes to crypto regulation. AMC shares are now trading at $14.96 for a loss of 1.7%. Previously, AMC shares were up more than 1% in Tuesday’s premarket.

AMC stock fell sharply on Monday as investors continued to exit high-risk names as oil soared and commodity prices remained in orbit. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly and high-growth stocks such as AMC have taken a disproportionate hit. In the current environment, any highly leveraged security will take a bigger hit as interest rates are expected to rise, but growth is expected to slow. A US recession is approaching as the US yield curve is dangerously close to turning negative.

See Wake Up Wall Street for everything you need to know before the stock market opens.

AMC Stocks News

Investors, AMC traders – or monkeys as they like to be called – started Monday in high spirits as weekend box office numbers for Batman proved encouraging. However, AMC traders couldn’t stem the global bearish tide, and the stock was well beaten at the end of Monday. AMC stock closed at $15.21 for a loss of 8.2%. But Tuesday brings slightly more encouraging signs with slightly more optimistic tones of Russian demands on Ukraine, which has allowed risk assets to recover some ground. We would again expect a disproportionate rebound this time for AMC, and the stock should see a healthy gain at the open on Tuesday. We doubt this will hold for much longer than a few days as the overall sentiment remains bearish.

AMC Stock Forecast

AMC is bearish below $21.04 and is likely to remain in a long-term downtrend. The goal is to get back below $10. $14.54 is the next key support. A breakout will likely cause AMC stock to accelerate lower.

AMC stock chart, daily

Tuesday should see a recovery in risk sentiment. We are already noticing that safe-haven buying of bonds and dollars has faded and everything has weakened on Tuesday. This should see higher risk assets. The first step is to hold $14.54. This prepares the day for a green day. $16.62 is the next level to target for AMC and finds resistance against Friday’s volume profile. Once above $17.20, volume eases, meaning a breakout to the $18 test is possible. $18.20 is strong resistance and will be hard to break.

AMC 15 minute chart

Previous update: AMC stock gave up some premarket gains as the market declines. Previously, European markets had been strong thanks to a joint debt issuance proposal, but now things are turning bearish again. AMC CEO Adam Aron said Monday night that using cryptocurrency is good for AMC Entertainment and that the company may consider launching its own crypto in the future if things go well. . He also said that they would stay very far on the right side of the law when it comes to crypto regulation. AMC shares are now trading at $14.96 for a loss of 1.7%. Previously, AMC shares rose more than 1% in Tuesday’s premarket.

BEIJING (AP) — Asian stock markets rebounded on Thursday and oil prices rose after the head of the Federal Reserve said he supported a lower interest rate hike than some had expected.

Shanghai, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney advanced even as Russian forces whose attack on Ukraine rocked financial markets bombarded the country’s second-largest city and besieged two ports.

Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 rose 1.9% on Wednesday, recouping this week’s losses after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank was poised to hike its rate director for the first time since 2018. He said he supported a traditional rate hike of 0.25 percentage points instead of the larger hike recommended by some policymakers.

Powell said the impact on the US economy of Russia’s attack is “highly uncertain.”

“Markets reacted positively to the remarks, which is a questionable interpretation of Powell’s nuanced comments,” ING economists said in a report. “Volatility is key here, and uncertainty. That’s not going away anytime soon.”

The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo rose 0.8% to 26,608.21 and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 0.6% to 22,469.66. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1% to 3,487.78.

Seoul’s Kospi gained 1.6% to 2,745.45 and Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 rose 0.8% to 7,171.10. New Zealand and Southeast Asian markets also grew.

Stock prices have fluctuated wildly as investors try to figure out how the Russian attack will affect supplies of oil, wheat and other raw materials and the global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Traders were already worried about plans by the Fed and other central banks to fight inflation by withdrawing ultra-low interest rates that have boosted stock markets.

The S&P 500 rose to 4,386.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8% to 33,891.35. The Nasdaq composite advanced 1.6% to 13,752.02.

Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks rose. Technology, finance and healthcare companies accounted for a large share of the rally. Energy stocks also helped push the index higher due to higher oil prices.

Ford Motor Co. jumped 8.4% after announcing it was accelerating its transformation into an electric vehicle company and separating its electric vehicle and internal combustion businesses.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, or the difference between its market price and the payment at maturity, rose to 1.89% from 1.72% on Tuesday. However, yields were still lower than they were before the Russian invasion.

In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude rose another $2.68 to $113.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the price base for international oils, added $3.61 to $116.54 a barrel in London.

Both gains were lower than Wednesday’s surge of over $7 a barrel, but still unusually wide margins for a daily change.

Leaders of OPEC and other major oil exporters decided on Wednesday to stick to plans for a gradual increase in production. The coalition, made up of OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia and non-cartel members led by Russia, opted to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in April.

Also this week, the United States and other major oil consumers at the International Energy Agency agreed to release 60 million barrels of strategic reserves to boost supply. But this had little impact on market prices.

In currency markets, the Russian ruble gained 3.4% against the US dollar, but was still near a record low of less than 1 cent. It has fallen nearly 25% since the attack after Western governments imposed sanctions that cut off much of Russia’s access to the global financial system.

The dollar gained 115.63 yen from 115.58 yen on Wednesday. The euro fell to $1.1097 from $1.1126.

Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Russian ruble coins are seen in front of the US dollar banknote displayed in this illustration taken February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Files

NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) – The ruble hit a new high of 110 to the dollar in Moscow on Wednesday and fell back below 100 in other trading venues, though it remained under pressure as the country’s financial system reeled under the weight of Western sanctions imposed following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian stock market remained closed and bond trading showed wide bid-ask spreads and low volume.

The ruble fell 4.5% to 106.02 against the dollar in Moscow trade, earlier hitting 110.0, a record low. It has lost about a third of its value against the dollar since the start of the year. Against the euro, it lost 2.5% to end the day at 115.40.

But trade out of Russia saw the currency gain almost 10% on the day towards 95 per dollar, still 20% lower than where it traded in the first half of February.

“Ruble volatility remains extremely high, which could be caused by unstable currency sales by exporters as well as further heightened stress levels among market participants and households in particular,” Raiffeisen said in a statement. note.

Russia responded to the weak currency by more than doubling interest rates to 20% and telling businesses to convert 80% of their earnings into foreign currency domestically because the central bank, or CBR, which is now under Western sanctions, halted exchange interventions.

The weak ruble will affect living standards in Russia and stoke already high inflation, while Western sanctions are expected to create shortages of essential goods and services such as cars or flights. Read more

Many international companies have announced plans to leave Russia as the country’s credit ratings come under pressure due to the crisis.

Credit rating agency Moody’s said it was reviewing Russia’s rating for a downgrade, a move that “reflects the negative credit implications for Russia’s credit profile of additional and tougher sanctions. imposed”.

Meanwhile, Scope Ratings said the capital controls “raise important questions about the Russian state’s willingness to repay its debt to foreign residents” after it downgraded its rating to junk status.

The measures, Scope added, make Russia “more vulnerable to banking and liquidity crises.”

JPMorgan said a deep recession was brewing for Russia and the bank was reassessing its regional macroeconomic forecast.

“The most recent actions targeting CBR are a complete game-changer,” JPMorgan said.

“Russia’s large current account surplus could have accommodated large capital outflows, but with accompanying CBR and SWIFT sanctions, in addition to existing restrictions, it is likely that Russia’s export earnings Russia will be disrupted and capital outflows will likely be immediate.”

Several Russian banks have been excluded from the SWIFT global financial network which facilitates transfers between banks.

As Russian households and businesses rushed to convert the falling ruble into foreign currency, banks raised foreign currency deposit rates to attract those flows.

Russia’s biggest lender, Sberbank (SBER.MM), offers to pay 4% on deposits up to $1,000, while the biggest private lender, Alfa Bank, offers 8% on three-dollar deposits. month. For deposits in rubles, Sberbank offers an annual return of 20%.

Sberbank said on Wednesday it was quitting almost all European markets, blaming large cash outflows and threats to its staff and property, after the ECB ordered the closure of its European branch. Read more

The bank’s London-traded shares fell to 4.5 cents from $16 at the start of the year.

A U.S.-traded ETF of Russian companies and others with high Russian exposure fell nearly 8% on Wednesday, down 70% since mid-February.

Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” which it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy the military capabilities of its southern neighbor and capture what it sees as dangerous nationalists.

Reuters reporting; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Edmund Blair, Jane Merriman and Jonathan Oatis

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Parental status	Percentage having used a personal loan
non-relative	5%
relative	8%

payday loans in america

The rates and terms of payday loans can vary widely by state. Some states don’t even allow payday lenders because these lenders can sometimes be debt traps. In states where payday loans are permitted, one of three levels of regulation may apply.

Permissive states allow high loan fees and APRs and generally have the fewest restrictions. Hybrid states tend to have more restrictions, either by having rate caps, restrictions on loans per borrower, or giving borrowers more payment periods to repay the loan. Restrictive states don’t allow payday loans or have a 36% APR rate cap, making it virtually impossible for payday lenders to set up shop in these states.

Payday loans are most common in urban areas and the Midwest, with 7% of urban residents and 7% of Midwest residents using them.

Why do people use payday loans?

Payday loans are intended for urgent or unexpected expenses, and it is generally advisable to avoid using them for anything else if possible. If someone is living paycheck to paycheck and falling behind on their bills, a payday loan to cover groceries or rent might seem like a great idea. Unfortunately, the fees incurred by these loans are usually higher than the loan itself, pushing borrowers further into the cycle of debt.

However, the majority of payday loan borrowers, 69%, use these loans for regular expenses.

Payday loans are commonly used to pay:

• Utilities
• Car payment
• Payment by credit card
• Rent/mortgage
• Food

Alternatives to payday loans

If you’re in dire financial straits and want to borrow money quickly, payday loans aren’t your only option. Payday loans tend to start a borrowing cycle, and borrowers are likely to get in over their heads with extremely high fees. There are several alternatives to taking out a payday loan, including loans for lenders with bad credit, credit card cash advances, and personal installment loans.

These options have lower fees and longer repayment terms. Credit card cash advances have high APRs similar to payday loans, but they allow the borrower a longer period to repay the loan.

While personal loan interest rates will be higher for less qualified borrowers, personal loan rates are capped at around 36%, significantly lower than payday loan rates. Additionally, personal lenders tend to charge lower fees than payday lenders.

If you decide to take out a personal loan, be sure to do your research on today’s best personal loan rates and bad credit loans.

The bottom line

Payday loans can be extremely useful for those who find themselves struggling with unexpected expenses or falling behind in their day-to-day expenses. Payday lenders lend money to people who may not qualify elsewhere. However, taking out a payday loan usually leads to taking out more, leaving borrowers in a cycle of debt. Younger, lower-income borrowers are more likely to take out these loans, and people of color also tend to take out payday loans at higher rates.

If you are considering a payday loan, make sure you know the payday loan rules in your state and that you are getting the lowest APR you can find in your area. Also, beware of payday scams, as the lack of regulation in some states can cause lenders to take advantage of borrowers. However, if you can qualify, taking out a personal loan or credit card cash advance is a safer and less expensive option.

Struggling to fund an emergency? What should you do if you need money right now? First of all, assess the situation and do not make hasty decisions. Payday loans play a good role here to help you pay off your debt and spend the necessary amount of money for emergency expenses.

We recommend the option of taking out a payday loan DirectLoanTransfer if you have a short-term disruption to your finances. Thus, you can repay your debt in just one to two months and calmly continue to pay your loans on time.

More often than not, we find ourselves in a financial bind. Suppose you spread yourself too thin and exhaust your borrowing options. Now what? Let’s take a look at 10 good reasons why people take payday loans.

Reasons to get a payday loan

1. When you can’t afford major purchases

A client took out payday loans to buy new appliances, a cell phone, a fur coat for his wife, a car and winter tires. He was able to finance all of these purchases with payday loans while saving money to pay for his personal needs and necessities, such as food, gas, and clothing.

2. To avoid empty pockets

Over the past 15 years, a customer has taken out about 10 loans to buy a camera, two tablets, two phones, and new furniture. Taking out payday loans allowed her to buy what she needed and still have money in her pocket. These were well-calculated decisions that helped the client get the necessities without spending all her money.

3. Out of madness

A customer broke his phone. Unfortunately, he had no savings, so he took out a loan. Therefore, the customer filled out a request directly in the store, but only one bank responded. The fees and interest rates on this bank loan were thousands of dollars more than the original amount he had borrowed. After this realization, he decided to look into payday loans instead. The client received money instantly and didn’t have to worry about trailing payments that accrue interest. With payday loans, he got his phone and paid off the debt in just one month – easy and hassle-free!

4. If there is not enough will to accumulate

Let’s say you took out two payday loans, the first for remote programming lessons and the second for a digital piano. One has already been paid, the other is being paid. There is not enough will to save on such acquisitions. Each time, think carefully about the need to apply for a payday loan. Consult specialists from different banks and don’t forget to consider different payday loan offers. Due to this, thanks to the training, you will receive attractive offers of personal loans from the management, and the piano will become a source of additional income.

5. To raise the standard of living

A payday loan is a great opportunity to get an item at a discount. You can close the debt on the first payment, saving a little. Credit cards help you get certain things without overpaying but a little earlier. Payday loans will help you raise the bar on quality of life. It is not because there are things that are borrowed. Indeed, you will start thinking in slightly different numbers with a payday loan.

6. Live until the next paycheck

Payday loans can help solve urgent and unexpected financial difficulties, but sometimes high rates and overpayments can create long-term problems in a family’s budget. Now we have to work for the loans. All the money is divided into two categories: repayment of the loan and somehow stretching the salary.

7. In order not to constrain oneself in desires

Payday loans can be taken on a whim. For example, if you suddenly wanted to renew your fleet of vehicles and it was uncomfortable to withdraw the full amount of traffic and savings, even if formally there was such an opportunity. You took about a few thousand dollars for six months for an iPhone. You can afford to take out a payday loan. You could take it for a wedding so as not to be afraid of desires, which is about 700,000 for three years.

A personal loan is a practical tool if it is not coerced. If credit money helps accelerate the rate of capital growth or get the feeling now and pay it back later, then that’s a good reason to agree to take out a payday loan.

8. In order not to choose what to buy

When repairing an apartment, money is needed for plastic windows or TV. Suppose you need to borrow several thousand dollars for a television. Let’s say it would be a shame if you gave more than five thousand a month, but the way of life will not change. It is likely that you will not regret having taken out a personal loan. Nevertheless, in the future, think about how you could save in advance.

9. To spend money on the most important

Suppose you have taken out many small loans that could amount to hundreds of dollars. You close one and immediately organize the next, for example for studies, treatment, travel, expensive furniture or equipment. In general, for whatever is most important. Additionally, you can use a credit card with a limit of a few thousand. Loans are always closed ahead of schedule in two or three months while spending money on useful and necessary things that you could not save for in any way and not on momentary pleasures like a bottle of expensive alcohol or unnecessary clothes.

10. When there are no other options

Let’s say the roof of your house was in a terrible state. Suppose an urgent repair is needed, but it would be impossible to save such an amount even if the whole family saved the entire salary. Then a payday loan is a very good option.

By Bill SchmickChronicler of the iBerkshires
4:23 p.m. / Friday, February 18, 2022

Over the next three weeks, stocks will likely trade in a wide range. The caveat to this forecast: if the Fed suddenly changes policy, or if a deadly war breaks out in Ukraine. Those are two big ifs. Unfortunately, I can’t predict when or what the next Fed chief will say, or predict Vladimir Putin’s next move.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will take place in mid-March. The latest CPI and PPI inflation data show that inflation is accelerating at a much faster pace than economists and the Fed expected. It is almost certain, according to bond market vigilantes, that the Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at that time. So, the only question is whether the rate hike will be 25 or 50 basis points.

This will only be part of the equation. Investors will expect Chairman Jerome Powell to give them more information on how many rate hikes they can expect in the future, and what other monetary tightening the Fed is also planning. The risk will be that the stock market fades and tests the lows if the Fed is seen to be more hawkish on tightening than expected.

That in the meantime, we have something to occupy our attention. This week, market concerns about interest rates were supplanted by Russia’s intentions towards Ukraine. So far, the conflict has played out in the media in a “he said, she said” war of accusations and counter-accusations.

War is never a good thing, suffice it to say. But besides the human costs of such a conflict, there would also be an economic price to pay. The sanctions that the United States and its allies are prepared to impose on Russia in response to perceived aggression would cause damage to the global economy and to the United States as well.

Russia supplies a large part of the products that the rest of the world consumes. The sanctions could immediately cause major price spikes for commodities such as oil, gas and coal. Russia is also a major exporter of rare earth minerals and heavy metals. A third of the world’s supply of palladium (used in catalytic converters), for example, and titanium (think airplanes) is also mined and exported by Russia.

Ukraine is also a major source of neon, an essential input in the manufacture of semiconductors. Ukraine is one of the world’s largest producers of wheat, as well as fertilizer (just like Russia). Hostilities could harm their ability to export or even harvest the country’s wheat supply.

I would expect price spikes in several food items as a result. This would add fuel to the inflation fire and could force the Fed to become even more aggressive in raising interest rates. That wouldn’t be a pretty picture for stock market investors.

To be honest, no one knows if Russia is bluffing or serious about the invasion as the next step. For me, a telltale sign of their intent would be any movement of medical facilities and supplies to troop assembly areas and the border with Ukraine. This week I saw exactly that.

The risk is obvious. A shooting war would likely see the S&P 500 index retest the January 24 lows (4,222). Geopolitical events generally have a limited impact on the stock market unless hostilities are prolonged and wide-ranging. If, on the other hand, a negotiated settlement were to take place, markets would likely soar higher. That “if” word will keep investors nervous and prices in a box with each security capable of driving the markets up or down 1-2%.