Netflix stock at an all-time high – what’s next?



Netflix stocks (NASDAQ: NFLX) has risen more than 4% in the past week and is currently trading at $ 613 per share, which is an all-time high for the streaming giant. The title recently increased after some positive announcements from its content director, Ted Sarandos. He said Squid Game – a recently released Korean-language survival story – has already surpassed Lupine and Money Heist as the most popular Netflix foreign-language original. Additionally, it could become the most popular series the company has produced to date. The most watched TV show in hours in the first 28 days was Bridgerton the first season, which totaled 625 million hours of viewing. The show had eight episodes, suggesting an average viewership – in the first four weeks alone – of around 78 million per episode. To put it in perspective, the last Super Bowl had less than 92 million viewers.

Netflix also announced an agreement to acquire video game company Night School Studio to provide games from Night School and other developers to subscribers at no additional cost, and with no ads or in-game purchases. All of this suggests that recent Concerns about the slight growth in the number of subscribers in the first half of 2021 linked to a list of content that had been altered by the production limitations imposed by the pandemic, are likely to be of a transitory nature. For the third quarter of 2021, Netflix forecasts 3.5 million net subscriber additions, compared to 1.5 million in the second quarter of 2021. But will Netflix’s stock continue its upward trajectory in the coming weeks, or is a correction of the action more likely?

According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data over the past ten years, NFLX stock returns are probably close to 4% then one month (21 trading days) period after experiencing a 4.3% increase over the previous one-week period (five trading days). Also, there is a 60% chance that the stock will give positive returns in the next month or so. But how would those numbers change if you wanted to hold NFLX stock for a shorter or longer period of time? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Netflix Share Price Forecast after a rise or fall. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month, or even a single day! For more details on Netflix’s historic returns and the comparison of returns with peers, see Return of Netflix shares.

MACHINE LEARNING MOTOR – try it yourself:

IF NFLX stock has moved -5% over five trading days, SO Over the next 21 trading days, NFLX stock moves an average of 4.5%, with a 61% chance of a positive return.

Some fun scenarios, FAQs, and explanation of NFLX stock movements:

Q1: Are Netflix stock price predictions higher after a decline?


Consider two situations,

Case 1: Netflix stock drops -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Netflix stock grows 5% or more in a week

Are Netflix share price predictions higher in the next month after Case 1 or Case 2?

NFLX action fares better after case 1, with an expected return from 4.6% during the following month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% during the previous week), against an expected return of 3.9% for case 2. This implies a price prediction of $ 642 in case 1 and a figure of $ 637 in case 2 using the NFLX market price of $ 613.15 on 10/2/2021.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in case 1, and an expected return of only 0.5% for case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the expected return of the S&P 500 after a rise or fall.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the forecast for Netflix stock is likely to change after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.

Q2: Does patience pay?


If you buy and hold Netflix stock, over time short-term fluctuations are expected to cancel each other out and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong. .

Overall, according to data and calculations from the machine learning engine Trefis, patience absolutely pays for most actions!

For NFLX shares, returns over the following N days after a variation of -5% over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns of the S & P500:

Q3: What about the average return after rising if you wait a while?


The average return after a rise is naturally lower than that after a fall, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, however, if a stock has won in the last few days, you’d better avoid short-term bets. Specifically, after the S & P500 has risen 5% over five days, the average return over the next seven trading days is negative. You can only expect a nominal gain if you stay invested for at least two weeks (10 trading days). But this average yield figure swells to 11.7% over a period of one year (252 trading days).

It’s powerful enough to test the trend for yourself for Netflix stocks. It would be great to hear how the results compare to your own intuition.

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